Crucial factors at play in Amina’s quest to head AU

As the African Union Commission (AUC) enters the homestretch in its search for a chairperson to replace South Africa’s Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the need for a reformist, an effective negotiator and shrewd politician to lead the continent towards the Vision 2063 blueprint is apparent.

Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed is among five other candidates seeking the position. Others in the race are Prof Abdoulaye Bathily (Senegal), Mr Agapito Mba Mokuy (Equatorial Guinea), Dr Pelomoni Venson Moitoi (Botswana) and Mr Moussa Faki Mahamat (Chad).

If Ms Mohamed embodies the demands of the office, what are her chances of rallying the continent behind her candidature?

She combines training in Law and International Relations with a vastness of experience in diplomacy attained from nearly three decades in diplomatic assignments — including knowledge in the workings of the international system, having headed high calibre global organisations.

She also strongly lobbied against the International Criminal Court cases that were facing President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto. But is this sufficient to drive her through to the helm of African Union (AU) leadership? Maybe not. There are some stark realities that should temper our optimism.

Foremost is regional voting. As much as the actual vote for the chairperson will be cast through secret ballot by the 53 AU member states, the tendency has been for regional blocs to largely influence the decision.

The key regional blocs (some with overlapping membership) include the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the East African Community (EAC), Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and the Economic Community of Central African states.

DIPLOMATIC LOBBYING

Whoever wins the vote will, therefore, be buoyed by the backroom diplomatic lobbying along regional blocs. Incidentally, at least one of the five nominees comes from four of the five regional blocs.

If hypothetically, states voted strictly by the positions adopted by their regional blocs, this would place Ms Mohamed’s bid at a disadvantaged position. 

She starts with just five votes from the EAC, compared to Prof Bathily with 15 from Ecowas and Dr Pelomoni with 15 from SADC. The fact that Ms Mohamed’s campaign has been seen cosying up with Western Saharan leaders further complicates matters as it plays to the antagonism between Algeria and Morocco; influential AMU states.

Secondly, there is the question of the current occupation of top AU leadership positions by East Africans. The current deputy chair of the AUC, Erastus Mwencha, is a Kenyan diplomat who has held the influential position since 2008.

He was previously Comesa Secretary-General for 10 years. Moreover, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is currently the second vice-chairperson of the AU and has already been tasked with the influential job of revamping the regional body.

The perennial Anglophone-Francophone power squabbles are also expected to play out.

Notably, Anglophone and Francophone African states match in numbers within the AU – a status that has always contributed to stalemates in crucial matters such as the forthcoming vote.

As it is, Anglophone states, mainly from the SADC region, maintain the position that Dr Zuma never completed her tenure by quitting after one term. 

This explains the decision to back Dr Pelomoni from Botswana on grounds that Francophone Africa (Mali, Gabon and Ivory Coast) has already been at the helm of the AU three times.

PERCEIVED INFLUENCE

Such a squabble could make some Francophone states to back Prof Bathily instead of Ms Mohamed or Dr Pelomoni. In fact, it is rumoured that the vote was postponed from July 2016 mainly due to lobbying by Francophone states, especially Senegal, that backs Prof Bathily.

Then there is the perceived influence of the “Big Five”. Strong states often influence the domestic and foreign policy of weaker states and shape the trajectories of regional and global agendas.

In Africa, the “Big Five” are considered to be Algeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa and Nigeria. They draw this power from their demographic portfolios, economic strength and military capabilities. They are believed to be shaping the future of the continent in profound ways and their support is crucial for AU positions. 

Ms Mohamed’s bid has struggled with gaining this backing. Thus far, there has been word that her campaign secured support from Egypt and Ethiopia though not firmed up.

Having been sponsored by Senegal, a strong Ecowas state, Prof Bathily is rumoured to have swayed to his direction support from Nigeria and Algeria while Dr Pelomoni is believed to have the backing of South Africa.

Beyond the lobbying and vote-hunting, the qualities of the different candidates play a big role. While Ms Mohamed’s diplomatic credentials give her substantive leverage, these two alternative candidates come with palpable pedigree.

In Prof Bathily, Ms Mohamed faces off with a veteran of African politics with vast working experience in West and Central Africa who has amassed a wealth of contacts across the continent through his participation in pan-African, liberation and socialist movements across the continent.

He speaks both French and English quite fluently and is currently the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Central Africa.

STRONG POLITICAL CAREER

Dr Pelomoni brings to the race a strong political career laced with wide experience serving in various ministerial positions in Botswana and advanced training in Public Administration.
In Mr Mokuy, Ms Mohamed will meet a candidate with the full support of President Obiang Nguema, who has been rumoured to be using the nation’s vast oil resources to lobby other African heads of government.

He apparently speaks six international languages and has extensive diplomatic experience. And Mr Mahamat is a seasoned international politician who is a former Prime Minister of Chad with strong backing of President Idriss Derby. These are by no means walkover contestants. They bring to the race substantive influence from the backing of their regions and strong credentials.

Finally, it has been argued that Kenya has been extravagant with its diplomatic capital in the recent past. The practice of diplomacy operates on a valued principle of reciprocity loosely interpreted to mean doing favours to others expecting to cash in on them in the future.

Ms Mohamed’s bid comes hot on the heels of a spirited diplomatic campaign to rid President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto from the ICC.

This adventure involved persuasion of many African states, for example, to support various petitions on the ICC and its proceedings some of which may have stepped on some toes. It becomes difficult to go back to these states to seek their backing again for AUC Chair. But, ultimately, as a neo-pan-Africanist, I wish her the best.

The author is a Research Associate and Director for Policy and Research for Africa Centre for People Institutions and Society